According to @milesdeutscher, prediction markets assign a 76% chance that the Supreme Court will rule against the tariff plan underpinning the proposed $2,000 stimulus checks, weakening the direct-check narrative (source: @milesdeutscher). According to @milesdeutscher, even if a package proceeds, it could take forms like tax deductions rather than a flat $2,000 transfer, citing Bessent—meaning less immediate liquidity than a bank wire (source: @milesdeutscher). According to @milesdeutscher, traders should temper expectations for a direct $2k-per-person cash injection and avoid overpricing an imminent impulse in risk assets including BTC and ETH (source: @milesdeutscher).